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Game of the Week – Northern Ireland vs Italy
It is amazing what one positive result can do. Before the start of the Euro 2012 qualification campaign, many, this writer included would have tipped Northern Ireland to finish fourth in a group that included Slovenia, Serbia and 2006 World Champions Italy. Okay, maybe third at a push if they could get the better of their two games with the Slovenians. However, their first meaningful away win for several years has restored optimism and hope to Nigel Worthington's side, and while the Azzurri travel to Windsor Park with a 100% record, the two wins have come against Estonia and the Faroe Islands. Cesare Prandelli, you could argue, has not faced a serious test as coach and this has the potential to be a huge banana skin for his players.
The history of Norn Iron is an interesting tale, littered with famous victories against what appear to be superior rivals, and defeats in footballing backwaters that tend to undo all the hard work. In the Euro 2008 Qualifying campaign, their record against quality opposition put that of Steve McClaren's England to shame. Four points off Denmark and Sweden and a memorable win at Windsor against Spain that evoked memories of 1982. They also lost twice to Iceland and away to Latvia, and four points from those games would have seen them through to a playoff. So the evidence of the past suggests that Estonia need not worry about them, but Italy should.
At home, the default strategy for any team from the principality is to get in the faces of technically superior players, put balls into the box wherever possible, play at a high tempo, press like lunatics in unison and make the best use possible of set-pieces. Indeed their one defeat at home in the last campaign was a 0-2 reverse against Slovakia, where the blueprint appeared to give way to an uncharacteristically flat performance. The energy of Sammy Clingan in midfield is going to be key here, and for an upset to materialise, Chris Brunt's deliveries into the penalty area have the potential to make a massive difference. In attack, Kyle Lafferty, who runs hot and cold, needs to be on his A-game to offer an outball to a team who will have closer to 40% than 50% of the ball. Their big players, especially goalkeeper Maik Taylor, need to step up to the plate as much as ever.
The simple nature of the first two games means that Italian confidence has not really been probed since the disaster of the World Cup. What is surprising is that the five forwards in Prandelli's squad have less than 70 caps between them, and while other areas of the team have experience, the mix between a few players who could be on the downward curve and a lot who lack international experience has the potential to implode. In the last 20 years or so, Italy have typically produced two types of team. One is efficient and hard to break down at one end, while occasionally brilliant at the other. The second type is chaotic, something of a mess and prone to flushing points down the toilet, thus making top seed qualification hard work. We do not know for certain which of those this Italy team is, and Friday may well be the day we find out.
This writer hopes it is not partisan British bias that leads him to believe that the Azzurri, fragile and in transition, are there for the taking if Northern Ireland go for them from the first whistle and get the crowd behind them. As is so often, the first goal is everything, and if it goes to the home side, absolutely anything could happen from there. However, it is clear where the better quality lies, and this may ultimately get the Italians out of jail and away from Windsor with a 1-1 draw.
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